In tennis, mental skill is just as important as physical ability.
This project explores how elite players handle pressure situations (i.e., important points) to gain an edge over their opponents.
Shot trajectory data - with precise ball coordinates - from the 2019-2023 French Open tournaments was used.
Key findings:
On serve, elite players tend to stick to their strengths and even play more aggressively under pressure (depending on their opponent).
On return, elite players generally adopt a more conservative approach to their current strategy.
[{"x": -11.3, "y": 1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "hit"},
{"x": -11.3, "y": 1.1, "z": 2.607, "position": "peak"},
{"x": -0.283, "y": -2.827, "z": 0.033, "position": "bounce"},
{"x": -1.367, "y": -4.261, "z": 0.058, "position": "last"}]
| Position | x | y | z |
|---|---|---|---|
| hit | -11.300 | 1.100 | 2.607 |
| peak | -11.300 | 1.100 | 2.607 |
| bounce | -0.283 | -2.827 | 0.033 |
| last | -1.367 | -4.261 | 0.058 |
| serverId | receiverId | game_score | set_score | match_score | atp_importance | atp_is_important | breakPoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Koepfer | Roger Federer | 15-15 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0.0712242 | FALSE | FALSE |
| Dominik Koepfer | Roger Federer | 15-30 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0.1119237 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Dominik Koepfer | Roger Federer | 30-30 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0.1043578 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Dominik Koepfer | Roger Federer | 30-30 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0.1043578 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Dominik Koepfer | Roger Federer | 30-40 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0.1938073 | TRUE | TRUE |
| Dominik Koepfer | Roger Federer | 40-40 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0.1043578 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Dominik Koepfer | Roger Federer | 40-30 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0.0561927 | FALSE | FALSE |
| Roger Federer | Dominik Koepfer | 0-0 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 0.1530140 | TRUE | FALSE |
| Total Matches | Total Points | Total Important Points | Percent Important | Total Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180 | 45672 | 7848 | 17.2% | 185702 |
Figure 1: Blue dots represent serve locations on important points, grey dots represent serve locations on non-important points. Dots above the dashed line represent Deuce side serves, dots below the dashed line represent Ad side serves
Nadal primarily targets his opponent’s backhand.
When facing a break point, Nadal generally follows the same serving strategy, with more aggressive serve locations (closer to the lines).
Against strong returners (e.g., Djokovic and Zverev), Nadal’s serve locations are less predictable.
Figure 2: Blue dots represent serve locations on important points, grey dots represent serve locations on non-important points.
Swiatek’s primary strategy is serving to the middle of the service box, providing more margin for error while taking away her opponent’s angles on the return.
On important points she implements the same strategy with more aggressive serve locations (closer to the lines).
Figure 3: Blue dots represent return locations on break points, grey dots represent return locations on non-break points.
Djokovic targets most of his returns at his opponent’s backhand with a consistent return depth - this sets him apart from his competitors.
Djokovic is the best in the world at locking in for pressure situations, he made all 58 returns on break point opportunities in the 2021 tourney:
| Break Point | Returns Hit | Returns Made | Percent Returns in Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| FALSE | 507 | 439 | 86.6% |
| TRUE | 58 | 58 | 100.0% |
Players adapt differently under pressure:
On serve, Nadal and Swiatek often maintain their strategy but play more aggressively on important points.
On return, Djokovic prioritizes consistency in high-stakes moments.
Only ~17% of all points are labeled as important, but they have a disproportionately large impact on match outcomes.
Shot placement data allows us to visualize elite players’ serve and return patterns in response to pressure, enabling more nuanced performance analysis.
atp_importance values are derived using Kovalchik’s deuce package.